Television was first conceptualized in the late 1870’s. Almost fifty years later, the first crude television and television camera were invented. It took awhile for it to catch on. The first ratings sweep was conducted by mailing a survey to everyone who owned a television. Modern times are different; I believe the last count I read said there were more TV’s in the U.S. than there were people to watch them.

Microwave ovens were conceptualized in the 1930’s and by the mid 40’s one had been invented. Although they were first marketed in the early 50’s, they did not gain popularity as a household appliance until the late 60’s.

The first “mobile” phone was invented in 1960. Although it required a vehicle to be mobile, it was not attached to a land line and thus fit the definition of portability. It took another nineteen years for the first cellular phone to be invented–in Japan, by the way–but technology was beginning to advance rapidly.

I could go on, but I think my point is seen. Inventions are going from concept to market quicker than ever before. It makes the world a very unpredictable place. I think that if I lived in 1800 I could have made predictions about 1850 which would have mostly be true, mostly because so little changed in those fifty years, at least as compared to the changes we’re seeing today.

Going from 1850 to 1900 would have been a greater challenge. If I were around then and on top of things, I might have seen the dramatic effect of railroads and specifically the creation of the transcontinental railroad–although I might have missed that; it was huge–but I doubt I would have seen the invention of the automobile.

Each decade has made things harder to predict. I can see many similarities between 2010 and 2000, but I can’t say the same about 2010 and 1990. I could maybe make a few predictions about 2020, but I don’t even want to attempt 2030, much less anything beyond that. Many of the “new” things around today were around ten years ago, although they have been much improved. Going back that extra decade, however, makes things so radically different as to make their predecessors (or descendants, if you go the other way) almost unrecognizable as being related.

No small part of that is the slow but steady process of globalization. Researchers around the world work with each other and in competition to produce the next hot product, or at least the next hot variation on something we already have. Necessity was once the mother of invention, but she has been replaced by Marketability.

It’s a race to the consumer. May the best, brightest and quickest concept-to-market inventor win. See you in the future.